Southern Miss @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-5 · Power #121

final

Final

South Alabama

3-3 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -18.5

✓ USA W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 17–35 USA

✓ USA (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -18.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSA -18.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -18.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as an 18.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 55–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 51, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.6 against an average line of 17.5; 53.2 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA vs RICE 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-17	45–0	W	U53
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-17	41–34	L	O51
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	PUR vs IU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-17.5	44–7	W	O50.5
Very close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-20	38–15	W	P53
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-17	34–7	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	0-3
USA LWLLW	2-4	33%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM OUOO–	4-1	80%	1-5
USA UUOO–	2-2	50%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 101 earlier overs in games with totals 47–55, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USMlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	4-1 80%
USAlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−0.3 →−10.8▼ 10.5#115

USA−6.2 →+2.2▲ 8.4#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USM

Longer bar = better

USA

#111

Offense

USA better ▶

#47

#100

Defense

USA better ▶

#52

−0.2 #86

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+0.3 #43

71 plays #40

Pace

◀ USM faster

67 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	USM off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #98	22.2 #46	USA
Yards / play	5.07 #111	5.45 #60	USA
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.09 #69	USA
Success rate	37% #125	38% #33	USA

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #45	35.3 #123	USA
Yards / play	6.19 #46	6.80 #132	USA
PPA / play	+0.25 #27	+0.13 #90	USA
Success rate	42% #71	40% #53	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USM scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	6.2 #66	5.0 #118	11.2 #109	6.5 #64	6.0 #85	12.5 #83
USA allowed	4.0 #45	8.5 #86	12.5 #67	2.3 #10	7.3 #86	9.7 #34

USA scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.3 #57	9.0 #59	15.3 #63	6.8 #58	10.0 #17	16.8 #26
USM allowed	11.7 #132	7.3 #74	19.0 #126	8.7 #116	7.7 #94	16.3 #115

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.