James Madison @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Thu, Oct 19, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

6-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Marshall

4-2 · Power #96

final

Closing spread

JMU -5

✓ JMU W

Total

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 28–23 MRSH

✓ JMU (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Road favorites of 3–7 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 5-point road favorite at MRSH, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 20–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 49, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 4.8; 42.2 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Very close	UL @ TROY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	35–21	W	O48
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	16–10	W	U49
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	MSU @ RUTG 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	31–13	W	U50
Very close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & total	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Very close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	28–34	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU LWWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
MRSH WWLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; MRSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OUOOU	3-3	50%	6-0
MRSH OUO–O	3-2	60%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 45–53 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMUlast 6	6-0 100%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%
MRSHlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.1 →+4.7▼ 0.4#37

MRSH−2.3 →−2.3–#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

JMU

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#47

Offense

◀ JMU better

#79

#25

Defense

◀ JMU better

#48

+0.7 #26

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−0.3 #96

65 plays #87

Pace

MRSH faster ▶

74 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #29	28.5 #91	JMU
Yards / play	6.15 #49	5.54 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	−0.02 #17	MRSH
Success rate	43% #58	35% #17	MRSH

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	MRSH off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #54	21.0 #44	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #70	4.98 #29	JMU
PPA / play	+0.03 #108	−0.02 #20	JMU
Success rate	41% #84	33% #6	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	11.3 #8	10.2 #38	21.5 #7	6.3 #67	6.7 #67	13.0 #73
MRSH allowed	5.8 #83	9.5 #102	15.3 #97	6.3 #85	6.8 #76	13.2 #81

MRSH scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	4.0 #105	10.2 #38	14.2 #75	9.8 #16	6.3 #76	16.2 #30
JMU allowed	1.2 #2	7.8 #81	9.0 #27	6.3 #85	5.7 #54	12.0 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.