Ohio @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F17 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio

5-1 · Power #63

final

Final

Northern Illinois

2-4 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -5.5

✓ NIU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 24–19 NIU

✗ OHIO (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -5.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOHIO -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -5.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 5.5-point road favorite at NIU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 23–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 5.3; 46.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Very close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	19–24	L	P43
Very close	AFA @ SJSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	45–20	W	O45.5
Very close	PITT @ BC 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	30–31	L	O42.5
Very close	UL @ TROY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	35–21	W	O48
Very close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	17–10	P	U45.25
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	16–30	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2
NIU LLLWW	3-3	50%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: OHIO away, as favorite; NIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO UUUU–	0-4	0%	5-1
NIU UOUO–	3-2	60%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 56% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIOlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	0-4 0%
NIUlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO+0.9 →−0.5▼ 1.4#65

NIU−1.1 →−5.1▼ 4.0#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

OHIO

Longer bar = better

NIU

#86

Offense

Even

#89

Defense

◀ OHIO better

#54

+0.5 #37

Turnovers

◀ OHIO better

−0.3 #96

68 plays #59

Pace

◀ OHIO faster

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	OHIO off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #95	24.0 #63	NIU
Yards / play	5.12 #109	5.11 #38	NIU
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	+0.06 #51	NIU
Success rate	44% #49	41% #63	Even

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	NIU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #94	11.8 #7	OHIO
Yards / play	5.50 #87	4.33 #9	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.07 #96	−0.19 #2	OHIO
Success rate	41% #79	32% #7	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.5 #97	9.2 #55	13.7 #79	7.5 #46	3.3 #126	10.8 #102
NIU allowed	5.0 #68	3.5 #11	8.5 #23	7.5 #98	7.5 #91	15.0 #102

NIU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	2.8 #120	7.0 #99	9.8 #118	7.8 #40	6.5 #72	14.3 #53
OHIO allowed	0.5 #2	4.5 #17	5.0 #3	0.5 #3	6.3 #68	6.8 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.