UNLV @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F2 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

4-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

0-5 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

UNLV -7.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 32–24 NEV

✓ UNLV (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -7.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNLV -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -7.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 7.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 45–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 7.3; 56.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	TOL @ NIU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Close	CMU @ NIU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	40–10	W	U57.5
Close	CMU @ EMU 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	31–23	W	U59
Close	FRES @ USU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-11	35–16	W	U51.5
Close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Close	FRES @ SJSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-7	40–9	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	2-0
NEV LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UUOOO	3-2	60%	4-1
NEV –UUUU	0-4	0%	0-5

Went over in Q3. Of 102 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 39% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLVlast 5	4-1 80%	5-0 100%	3-2 60%
NEVlast 5	0-5 0%	3-2 60%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.6 →−4.5▼ 1.9#88

NEV−18.4 →−16.3▲ 2.1#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UNLV

Longer bar = better

NEV

#54

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#126

#79

Defense

◀ UNLV better

#133

+1.2 #7

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.2 #90

68 plays #58

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

66 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #22	38.4 #132	UNLV
Yards / play	5.78 #69	8.38 #136	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.23 #34	+0.31 #130	UNLV
Success rate	40% #89	52% #134	UNLV

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	NEV off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	15.4 #133	26.8 #80	UNLV
Yards / play	4.43 #132	5.99 #99	UNLV
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	+0.10 #73	UNLV
Success rate	37% #118	41% #65	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	7.6 #35	10.8 #30	18.4 #33	6.8 #59	10.8 #12	17.6 #19
NEV allowed	9.8 #125	5.4 #32	15.2 #95	11.6 #133	11.6 #129	23.2 #133

NEV scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	4.0 #102	4.0 #127	8.0 #126	1.4 #133	6.0 #85	7.4 #123
UNLV allowed	4.8 #67	6.2 #49	11.0 #56	7.6 #101	8.2 #100	15.8 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.