San José State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

San José State

1-5 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico

2-3 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

SJSU -6.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 30–25 UNM

✓ SJSU (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSJSU -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at UNM, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 52–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 53.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 5.8; 45.9 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	21–14	W	U55
Very close	LT @ ODU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	20–23	L	U52.25
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-4	29–0	W	U54
Close	FAU @ CLT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	38–9	W	U58
Close	TLSA @ USF 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	32–31	L	O55.75
Close	LT @ UTEP 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	3–19	L	U55.5
Close	OHIO @ BGSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.25	10–21	L	U48.5
Close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-7	33–35	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU LWWLP	3-2-1	60%	2-0-1	1-0
UNM LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as favorite; UNM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU –OUO–	3-1	75%	1-5
UNM OOUOO	4-1	80%	2-3

Went over in Q3. Of 89 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSUlast 6	1-5 17%	3-2-1 60%	3-1 75%
UNMlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−9.4 →−5.7▲ 3.7#94

UNM−11.8 →−11.1▲ 0.7#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SJSU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#77

Offense

UNM better ▶

#40

#121

Defense

Even

#124

+0.8 #17

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

−0.8 #117

64 plays #96

Pace

◀ SJSU faster

62 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #80	31.0 #107	SJSU
Yards / play	5.76 #70	6.61 #128	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #78	+0.29 #127	SJSU
Success rate	41% #78	50% #132	SJSU

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #76	33.7 #117	UNM
Yards / play	6.33 #40	6.13 #108	UNM
PPA / play	+0.30 #17	+0.30 #129	UNM
Success rate	48% #27	48% #130	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	6.2 #62	12.5 #14	18.7 #29	5.8 #77	3.5 #122	9.3 #116
UNM allowed	4.6 #62	13.0 #129	17.6 #113	6.0 #78	6.8 #73	12.8 #79

UNM scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	6.0 #66	10.4 #35	16.4 #53	5.4 #85	5.6 #93	11.0 #100
SJSU allowed	2.8 #24	11.0 #118	13.8 #84	9.3 #122	10.5 #124	19.8 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.