Boise State @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Boise State

3-3 · Power #48

final

Final

Colorado State

2-3 · Power #109

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -7.5

✓ CSU W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 33–27 CSU

✗ BOIS (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -7.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBOIS -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -7.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 7.5-point road favorite at CSU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CSU won 31–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 6.2; 58.8 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Very close	FRES @ UNLV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-8.5	37–30	L	O62
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	35–28	W	O59
Very close	BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	35–26	W	O57.5
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	24–17	P	U59.5
Very close	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	40–3	W	U61
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Very close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	24–27	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WWLPP	2-2-2	50%	0-2-1	1-1-1
CSU LWWLL	2-3	40%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; CSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS UOOO–	3-1	75%	3-3
CSU OOOUO	4-1	80%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 57 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOISlast 6	3-3 50%	2-2-2 50%	3-1 75%
CSUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BOIS 13–1 CSU BOIS leads · 14 games since 2011 · BOIS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS−9.9 →−2.0▲ 7.9#75

CSU−7.1 →−7.9▼ 0.8#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BOIS

Longer bar = better

CSU

#47

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#71

#116

Defense

CSU better ▶

#94

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

◀ BOIS better

−0.8 #119

68 plays #64

Pace

CSU faster ▶

72 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #66	36.0 #129	BOIS
Yards / play	6.36 #37	6.06 #103	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	+0.09 #70	Even
Success rate	47% #31	42% #73	BOIS

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #54	30.8 #107	CSU
Yards / play	5.94 #59	6.82 #132	CSU
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.19 #111	Even
Success rate	42% #68	45% #112	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	3.8 #108	11.3 #24	15.2 #64	5.2 #87	9.3 #21	14.5 #52
CSU allowed	7.4 #110	9.0 #94	16.4 #104	5.8 #75	10.8 #127	16.6 #118

CSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	11.6 #7	2.8 #131	14.4 #72	2.6 #126	12.6 #2	15.2 #42
BOIS allowed	4.0 #44	12.8 #128	16.8 #107	4.3 #41	9.7 #120	14.0 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.