Fresno State @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Fri, Oct 13, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

5-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

3-3 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

FRES -5.5

✓ USU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 32–27 USU

✓ FRES (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -5.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -5.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 5.5-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 37–32; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 5.7; 53.2 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	MRSH @ GASO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	23–10	W	U52.5
Very close	WIS @ PUR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	38–17	W	O54
Very close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Very close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5
Very close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Very close	WAKE @ SYR 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	40–37	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LWWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-3
USU WLLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES OUOU–	2-2	50%	5-1
USU OOOOO	5-1	83%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 70 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRESlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-2 50%
USUlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FRES 19–14 USU (1 tied) FRES leads · 34 games since 1952 · USU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES+4.2 →+4.1▼ 0.1#40

USU−5.3 →−3.8▲ 1.5#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FRES

Longer bar = better

USU

#47

Offense

Even

#41

#24

Defense

◀ FRES better

#90

+1.2 #9

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

+0.3 #49

72 plays #23

Pace

Even

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #37	32.2 #113	FRES
Yards / play	5.70 #73	5.39 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #38	+0.09 #68	FRES
Success rate	46% #41	46% #120	FRES

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	38.2 #15	18.2 #25	Even
Yards / play	6.58 #29	4.47 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #63	+0.01 #34	FRES
Success rate	43% #58	36% #22	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	8.8 #26	8.5 #70	17.3 #42	8.0 #40	6.5 #77	14.5 #54
USU allowed	14.0 #133	8.5 #88	22.5 #133	2.3 #12	7.3 #85	9.7 #37

USU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	1.7 #131	15.3 #5	17.0 #47	11.5 #7	9.7 #18	21.2 #7
FRES allowed	3.3 #33	6.3 #53	9.7 #38	3.5 #29	3.8 #21	7.3 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.