UNLV @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

UNLV

6-1 · Power #68

final

Final

Fresno State

6-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -10.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 24–34 FRES

✓ FRES (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -10.5

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 45% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -10.5

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 10.5-point home favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 56, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 9.7; 62.5 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Very close	BAY vs KU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	35–23	W	O56.5
Very close	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	41–14	W	O53
Very close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	21–45	L	O59
Very close	UL vs CCU 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9	27–30	L	U58.5
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5
Close	TOL vs CMU 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	24–23	L	U54.5
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWWWL	6-1	86%	3-0	3-0
FRES WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-4

Venue/role: UNLV away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OOOOU	4-3	57%	6-1
FRES UOU–O	3-2	60%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 49% of games with totals 52–60 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLVlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
FRESlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.6 →−2.8▼ 0.2#80

FRES+4.2 →+3.5▼ 0.7#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UNLV

Longer bar = better

FRES

#38

Offense

Even

#43

#80

Defense

FRES better ▶

#34

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #2

71 plays #37

Pace

FRES faster ▶

73 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Even matchup

	UNLV off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #19	20.1 #31	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #53	4.90 #24	FRES
PPA / play	+0.25 #22	+0.05 #48	UNLV
Success rate	43% #58	37% #32	FRES

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #27	26.3 #76	FRES
Yards / play	5.71 #68	6.11 #112	FRES
PPA / play	+0.22 #33	+0.11 #80	FRES
Success rate	45% #44	40% #53	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	7.4 #36	10.1 #37	17.6 #31	8.1 #31	10.0 #17	18.1 #13
FRES allowed	3.9 #36	6.4 #52	10.3 #41	3.4 #21	5.4 #47	8.9 #23

FRES scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	8.6 #20	8.3 #66	16.9 #42	8.9 #21	6.9 #66	15.7 #36
UNLV allowed	4.4 #50	6.3 #44	10.7 #46	6.4 #86	9.1 #113	15.6 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.