UNLV @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

6-2 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico

3-5 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

UNLV -14.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 36–24 UNM

✓ UNLV (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -14.5

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNLV -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -14.5

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 14.5-point road favorite at UNM, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 56–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 58, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 13.7; 62 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ RICE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	41–7	W	U56
Very close	CCU @ ULM 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	28–21	L	U58
Very close	BSU @ HAW 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	40–32	L	O55.5
Very close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-12	45–31	W	O55
Close	UL @ TXST 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	44–34	L	O56.75
Close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-14	24–31	L	U58
Close	WAKE @ SYR 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	38–14	W	U59.5
Close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-15	27–21	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWWLW	7-1	88%	4-0	3-1
UNM WWLWL	4-4	50%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; UNM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OOOUU	4-4	50%	6-2
UNM OOOOO	7-1	88%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 89 earlier overs in games with totals 54–62, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLVlast 8	6-2 75%	7-1 88%	4-4 50%
UNMlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	7-1 88%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.6 →−2.2▲ 0.4#79

UNM−11.8 →−11.7▲ 0.1#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UNLV

Longer bar = better

UNM

#45

Offense

Even

#36

#78

Defense

◀ UNLV better

#126

+0.9 #17

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.5 #109

72 plays #26

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

63 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #26	32.8 #115	UNLV
Yards / play	5.94 #54	6.68 #132	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.21 #33	+0.23 #125	UNLV
Success rate	42% #66	48% #130	UNLV

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #63	26.9 #80	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #37	6.00 #103	UNM
PPA / play	+0.24 #20	+0.11 #75	UNM
Success rate	47% #22	40% #53	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	7.4 #39	10.1 #32	17.5 #31	7.1 #46	9.6 #18	16.8 #22
UNM allowed	4.1 #38	13.4 #131	17.5 #117	7.1 #100	7.8 #89	14.9 #101

UNM scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	5.9 #71	10.0 #35	15.9 #51	5.5 #88	7.0 #62	12.5 #79
UNLV allowed	4.8 #53	5.5 #22	10.3 #36	8.6 #121	8.0 #91	16.6 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.