Army vs Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff62°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Army

2-6 · Power #104

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

8-0 · Power #52

final

Closing spread

AFA -18.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

32.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 11–30 AFA

✗ AFA (91%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -18.5

Total32.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -18.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close32.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -18.5

Total32.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like AFA as an 18.5-point neutral-site favorite against ARMY, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 23–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 26 points stayed under 32.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 17; 67 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND vs NAVY 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	35–32	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ARMY PLLLL	2-5-1	29%	—	1-2-1
AFA WWLPW	4-3-1	57%	0-1	4-3-1

Venue/role: ARMY neutral, as underdog; AFA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY U–UOU	3-3	50%	2-6
AFA OOOUU	4-4	50%	8-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMYlast 8	2-6 25%	2-5-1 29%	3-3 50%
AFAlast 8	8-0 100%	4-3-1 57%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARMY 21–38 AFA (1 tied) AFA leads · 60 games since 1959 · ARMY has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−0.7 →−10.3▼ 9.6#113

AFA+5.5 →+7.1▲ 1.6#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ARMY

Longer bar = better

AFA

#109

Offense

AFA better ▶

#25

#105

Defense

AFA better ▶

#17

−1.5 #134

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

+0.5 #31

63 plays #103

Pace

Even

63 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	ARMY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #117	13.4 #4	AFA
Yards / play	5.12 #104	4.23 #6	AFA
PPA / play	+0.02 #109	−0.02 #20	AFA
Success rate	39% #106	38% #38	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #30	25.5 #68	AFA
Yards / play	6.08 #50	6.13 #114	AFA
PPA / play	+0.32 #9	+0.21 #119	AFA
Success rate	50% #11	46% #119	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	4.5 #101	6.3 #102	10.8 #106	3.9 #114	5.5 #101	9.4 #118
AFA allowed	2.5 #13	6.4 #46	8.9 #20	1.3 #3	3.3 #8	4.5 #2

AFA scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	6.6 #51	10.6 #27	17.3 #38	7.8 #37	8.6 #29	16.4 #31
ARMY allowed	4.5 #49	8.0 #84	12.5 #63	6.0 #73	7.0 #83	13.0 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.