Hawai'i @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

2-7 · Power #123

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

2-6 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

NEV -3

✓ HAW W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 24–28 NEV

✗ NEV (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEV -3

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNEV -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 54%, covered 43% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEV -3

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEV as a 3-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 27–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 50, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 2.7; 56.3 points a game (usually 54). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	24–34	L	O55.5
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	23–31	L	O50
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW LLLLL	1-7-1	13%	1-3	1-5
NEV WWLWW	5-3	63%	2-2	—

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; NEV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UOOOU	5-4	56%	2-7
NEV UUOUO	2-5	29%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 57% of games with totals 46–54 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAWlast 9	2-7 22%	1-7-1 13%	5-4 56%
NEVlast 8	2-6 25%	5-3 63%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−6.5 →−16.1▼ 9.6#130

NEV−18.4 →−14.5▲ 3.9#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

HAW

Longer bar = better

NEV

#105

Offense

◀ HAW better

#121

#117

Defense

Even

#123

−1.7 #135

Turnovers

NEV better ▶

0.0 #71

65 plays #89

Pace

Even

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #112	32.6 #114	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #92	7.46 #135	HAW
PPA / play	+0.01 #114	+0.20 #115	Even
Success rate	39% #102	47% #127	HAW

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #129	36.2 #128	Even
Yards / play	4.73 #123	6.19 #116	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #116	+0.22 #120	Even
Success rate	38% #117	44% #105	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.7 #127	6.0 #105	8.7 #122	3.8 #113	8.4 #31	12.2 #82
NEV allowed	7.9 #118	5.1 #21	13.0 #71	9.8 #128	9.9 #120	19.6 #133

NEV scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	4.1 #107	5.5 #115	9.6 #116	2.1 #130	6.3 #83	8.4 #122
HAW allowed	10.8 #130	11.0 #123	21.8 #133	6.0 #71	8.4 #100	14.4 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.