Nevada @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Nevada

2-7 · Power #132

final

Final

Utah State

4-5 · Power #100

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -15

✓ USU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 20–36 USU

✓ USU (86%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -15

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSU -15

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Line context

Home favorites of 13–17 since 2023: won 90%, covered 46% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -15

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 15-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.1 against an average line of 14.9; 53.7 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-15.5	45–3	W	U52.25
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	44–56	L	O51.5
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17	34–7	W	U52
Very close	UNT vs RICE 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	21–17	L	U57.25
Very close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Very close	SJSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.25	27–14	L	U58
Very close	BUFF vs AKR 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-12	23–22	L	U55
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16	27–14	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WLWWL	5-4	56%	3-1	4-3
USU LWWLW	5-4	56%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; USU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UOUOU	2-6	25%	2-7
USU OOOUP	6-2-1	75%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEVlast 9	2-7 22%	5-4 56%	2-6 25%
USUlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	6-2-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−18.4 →−15.9▲ 2.5#130

USU−5.3 →−3.7▲ 1.6#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NEV

Longer bar = better

USU

#128

Offense

USU better ▶

#44

#120

Defense

USU better ▶

#93

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #67

66 plays #83

Pace

USU faster ▶

71 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: USU defense

	NEV off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #130	32.9 #120	Even
Yards / play	4.62 #127	5.42 #58	USU
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	+0.12 #76	USU
Success rate	37% #126	46% #118	Even

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #22	32.0 #115	USU
Yards / play	6.24 #36	7.10 #136	USU
PPA / play	+0.15 #61	+0.18 #107	USU
Success rate	43% #55	46% #123	USU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	3.7 #113	4.9 #124	8.6 #122	3.4 #120	5.6 #98	9.0 #119
USU allowed	11.7 #132	7.2 #68	18.9 #124	4.7 #47	8.6 #100	13.2 #83

USU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	1.9 #132	12.9 #7	14.8 #62	8.8 #18	9.7 #16	18.4 #10
NEV allowed	7.0 #109	6.4 #47	13.4 #77	9.4 #125	9.1 #108	18.6 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.