Akron @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Wed, Nov 8, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F14 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Akron

2-7 · Power #130

final

Final

Miami (OH)

7-2 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -17

✓ M-OH W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 11–29 M-OH

✓ M-OH (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -17

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseM-OH -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Line context

Home favorites of 15–19 since 2023: won 98%, covered 53% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -17

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 17-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: M-OH won 19–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 37.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 17.3; 43.8 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SDSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-19.5	31–7	W	U42.5
Close	WYO vs UNM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-20	3–14	L	U40.5
Close	NCST vs BC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-18	20–21	L	P41
Close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-17	31–3	W	U41
Close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-14	35–26	L	O41
Close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · close	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-16	38–21	W	O46
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	AFA vs UNM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-21	35–3	W	O37.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LLWLW	4-5	44%	3-2	3-3
M-OH WWWLW	7-2	78%	2-1	5-0

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR U–UOO	3-4	43%	2-7
M-OH U–OUO	5-2	71%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 66% of games with totals 33.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKRlast 9	2-7 22%	4-5 44%	3-4 43%
M-OHlast 9	7-2 78%	7-2 78%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

AKR 8–23 M-OH M-OH leads · 31 games since 1993 · M-OH has won the last 9 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−1.0 →−16.2▼ 15.2#131

M-OH−11.1 →−2.1▲ 9.0#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

AKR

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#129

Offense

M-OH better ▶

#62

#58

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#43

−0.9 #130

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

−0.3 #93

65 plays #89

Pace

◀ AKR faster

59 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	AKR off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #131	19.0 #23	M-OH
Yards / play	4.51 #130	5.06 #31	M-OH
PPA / play	−0.06 #132	+0.09 #63	M-OH
Success rate	37% #121	41% #56	M-OH

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #57	29.1 #102	M-OH
Yards / play	6.09 #48	5.35 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #48	+0.05 #40	Even
Success rate	40% #94	38% #36	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	4.6 #94	4.1 #128	8.7 #121	1.9 #131	5.4 #98	7.3 #128
M-OH allowed	5.4 #78	4.8 #18	10.2 #33	3.9 #28	4.9 #33	8.8 #20

M-OH scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	8.4 #20	7.4 #76	15.9 #50	8.3 #26	4.8 #112	13.1 #65
AKR allowed	2.6 #12	10.3 #114	12.9 #71	11.0 #133	3.6 #12	14.6 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.