Virginia @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Thu, Nov 9, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

2-7 · Power #85

final

Final

Louisville

8-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -20.5

✓ UVA W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 16–36 LOU

✓ LOU (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -20.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -20.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 20.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 50, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.6 against an average line of 20.5; 50 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Very close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-20	38–15	W	P53
Very close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Very close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Very close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Very close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Very close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-24	28–13	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WWWWL	6-3	67%	3-1	5-2
LOU LWLWW	5-4	56%	5-0	4-4

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA PUPOO	5-2-2	71%	2-7
LOU U–OUU	3-4	43%	8-1

Went over in Q4. Of 128 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVAlast 9	2-7 22%	6-3 67%	5-2-2 71%
LOUlast 9	8-1 89%	5-4 56%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UVA 6–8 LOU LOU leads · 14 games since 1988 · UVA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−11.2 →−4.5▲ 6.7#90

LOU+2.1 →+12.4▲ 10.3#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UVA

Longer bar = better

LOU

#93

Offense

LOU better ▶

#19

#107

Defense

LOU better ▶

#15

−0.7 #120

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.6 #27

71 plays #33

Pace

◀ UVA faster

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	UVA off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #96	16.3 #13	LOU
Yards / play	5.13 #106	4.77 #18	LOU
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	−0.07 #8	LOU
Success rate	42% #74	36% #20	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #32	32.4 #118	LOU
Yards / play	6.67 #18	5.74 #82	LOU
PPA / play	+0.27 #14	+0.20 #114	LOU
Success rate	50% #12	45% #112	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	6.6 #54	6.0 #106	12.6 #83	6.0 #73	4.2 #123	10.2 #108
LOU allowed	0.8 #1	7.7 #81	8.4 #16	4.9 #51	3.0 #5	7.9 #15

LOU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.7 #32	10.4 #25	18.1 #24	8.6 #22	6.2 #82	14.8 #41
UVA allowed	5.2 #67	9.2 #98	14.4 #94	8.9 #122	8.4 #101	17.3 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.