Duke @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Duke

6-3 · Power #37

final

Final

North Carolina

7-2 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -10

✓ DUKE W

Total

▲ Over · 92 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 23–32 UNC

✓ UNC (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -10

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNC -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Home favorites of 8–12 since 2023: won 80%, covered 45% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -10

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 10-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 47–45; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 92 points went over 53, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 9.6; 53.2 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Very close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Very close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	TEX vs WVU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	17–13	L	U55
Very close	USC vs UTAH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	32–34	L	O52
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE LWLLL	4-5	44%	1-2	1-3
UNC WWLLW	6-3	67%	4-2	6-3

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE UUOUO	4-3-1	57%	6-3
UNC –OPOU	4-3-1	57%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 137 earlier overs in games with totals 49–57, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKElast 9	6-3 67%	4-5 44%	4-3-1 57%
UNClast 9	7-2 78%	6-3 67%	4-3-1 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DUKE 38–64 UNC (4 tied) UNC leads · 106 games since 1922 · UNC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.1 →+7.1▲ 3.0#29

UNC+0.1 →+9.0▲ 8.9#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

DUKE

Longer bar = better

UNC

#67

Offense

UNC better ▶

#13

#38

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#77

+0.2 #50

Turnovers

UNC better ▶

+1.3 #5

58 plays #132

Pace

UNC faster ▶

75 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #78	23.3 #53	UNC
Yards / play	5.84 #64	5.43 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #66	+0.13 #87	DUKE
Success rate	43% #59	44% #104	DUKE

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	39.1 #9	15.7 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.92 #10	4.93 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	+0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	48% #20	44% #95	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	4.6 #95	9.0 #47	13.6 #75	7.0 #50	5.1 #108	12.1 #80
UNC allowed	3.9 #32	8.7 #92	12.6 #62	3.8 #24	6.2 #61	10.0 #32

UNC scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.3 #39	13.8 #5	21.1 #10	11.3 #3	5.2 #105	16.6 #25
DUKE allowed	5.0 #55	4.1 #12	9.1 #22	1.8 #5	4.8 #30	6.6 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.