North Carolina @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

8-2 · Power #34

final

Final

Clemson

6-4 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -7.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 25–32 CLEM

✓ CLEM (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -7.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLEM -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -7.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 7.5-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLEM won 31–20; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 6.7; 54.2 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs TEX 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	30–7	W	U59.5
Very close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Very close	UTAH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.25	44–24	W	O60.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	NCST vs UNC 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	34–30	L	O61.25
Very close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	17–26	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WLLWL	6-4	60%	1-1	—
CLEM LLLWW	4-6	40%	3-3	3-5

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC OPOUO	5-3-1	63%	8-2
CLEM –OUOO	5-3	63%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 44% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-3-1 63%
CLEM	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+0.1 →+9.4▲ 9.3#23

CLEM−4.1 →+10.9▲ 15.0#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNC

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#13

Offense

◀ UNC better

#65

#81

Defense

CLEM better ▶

#16

+1.1 #6

Turnovers

◀ UNC better

+0.1 #64

76 plays #2

Pace

Even

76 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	39.9 #8	21.2 #42	UNC
Yards / play	6.83 #10	4.38 #7	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	−0.05 #12	Even
Success rate	47% #21	33% #4	Even

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #48	25.5 #63	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #85	5.42 #60	UNC
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	+0.15 #97	Even
Success rate	46% #31	44% #102	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.6 #38	13.0 #7	20.6 #13	10.5 #5	6.4 #83	16.9 #18
CLEM allowed	5.1 #61	2.9 #2	8.0 #9	4.8 #49	6.6 #74	11.4 #56

CLEM scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	6.1 #67	10.8 #24	16.9 #36	7.2 #47	5.9 #97	13.1 #66
UNC allowed	3.5 #23	9.2 #99	12.7 #63	3.4 #16	7.8 #95	11.2 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.