Wake Forest @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff48°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

4-6 · Power #81

final

Final

Notre Dame

7-3 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -24

✓ ND W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 13–37 ND

✓ ND (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -24

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -24

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 22–26 since 2023: won 93%, covered 36% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -24

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 24-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 45–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.7 against an average line of 24; 51.7 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Very close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-24	39–17	L	O52.5
Very close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Very close	PSU vs ILL 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-24.5	18–20	L	U45.5
Very close	FSU vs GT 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-23.5	41–16	W	O48
Very close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	42–7	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWLWL	4-6	40%	2-2	3-3
ND WLWWL	6-3-1	67%	3-1-1	6-3

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UUOOU	4-5	44%	4-6
ND U–OOO	6-2	75%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 139 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
ND	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WAKE 0–6 ND ND leads · 6 games since 2011 · ND has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+1.2 →−3.5▼ 4.7#81

ND+9.1 →+17.1▲ 8.0#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WAKE

Longer bar = better

#112

Offense

ND better ▶

#19

#59

Defense

ND better ▶

#11

−0.6 #117

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+0.8 #15

68 plays #55

Pace

◀ WAKE faster

61 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	WAKE off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #114	16.9 #12	ND
Yards / play	4.89 #122	4.41 #10	ND
PPA / play	−0.01 #120	−0.07 #8	ND
Success rate	40% #92	36% #15	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #16	24.6 #57	ND
Yards / play	6.81 #11	5.68 #78	ND
PPA / play	+0.25 #18	+0.10 #63	ND
Success rate	46% #32	39% #39	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	2.6 #128	6.6 #92	9.2 #118	4.7 #99	6.6 #76	11.3 #96
ND allowed	3.0 #19	3.4 #6	6.4 #5	5.1 #54	5.4 #42	10.5 #39

ND scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	6.2 #64	10.6 #27	16.8 #38	10.2 #7	9.8 #11	20.0 #3
WAKE allowed	3.1 #20	12.0 #130	15.1 #98	2.7 #8	6.8 #76	9.5 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.