Illinois @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

5-5 · Power #67

final

Final

Iowa

8-2 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -3

✓ ILL W

Total

33.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 17–20 IOWA

✓ IOWA (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -3

Total33.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIOWA -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close33.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (90 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -3

Total33.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 3-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 15–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 33.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 3.5; 42.8 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	10–12	L	U30.5
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–27	W	O36
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	27–22	W	O37
Close	ARMY vs GASO 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–27	L	O38.5
Close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5
Close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Close	MINN vs IOWA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	10–13	L	U31.5
Close	MIZ vs UK 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-1	17–21	L	U40
Close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	27–13	W	P40

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LWLWL	2-8	20%	2-2	2-3
IOWA WWLL–	4-4-1	50%	2-2-1	3-3-1

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL –OOOO	5-3	63%	5-5
IOWA –UUU–	2-6	25%	8-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	5-3 63%
IOWA	8-2 80%	4-4-1 50%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ILL 39–38 IOWA (2 tied) ILL leads · 79 games since 1899 · IOWA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.7 →−1.0▼ 0.3#71

IOWA+3.8 →+2.9▼ 0.9#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ILL

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#61

Offense

◀ ILL better

#133

#93

Defense

IOWA better ▶

−0.6 #123

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

−0.3 #96

67 plays #63

Pace

◀ ILL faster

58 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	ILL off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #91	12.3 #3	IOWA
Yards / play	5.87 #59	4.00 #1	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.13 #65	−0.10 #2	IOWA
Success rate	47% #27	35% #8	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	IOWA off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #125	29.3 #103	ILL
Yards / play	4.16 #135	5.36 #51	ILL
PPA / play	−0.08 #136	+0.17 #103	ILL
Success rate	34% #135	45% #113	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	4.7 #92	7.6 #76	12.3 #90	6.1 #66	4.8 #110	10.9 #103
IOWA allowed	1.6 #2	2.9 #2	4.5 #1	3.6 #17	4.2 #15	7.8 #12

IOWA scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.0 #122	5.8 #110	8.8 #123	3.6 #116	6.4 #83	10.0 #110
ILL allowed	6.3 #93	10.1 #114	16.4 #109	5.4 #57	7.2 #89	12.6 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.