Rutgers @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F10 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

6-4 · Power #51

final

Final

Penn State

8-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -19.5

✓ PSU W

Total

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 11–31 PSU

✓ PSU (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -19.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–21.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 54% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -19.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 19.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 27–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 40, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.6 against an average line of 19; 46.6 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	51–10	W	O40.5
Close	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5
Close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Close	ND vs BC 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-20	44–0	W	O42
Close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	31–3	W	U41
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG WLWP–	6-1-2	86%	2-0-1	1-0-2
PSU WLLWL	7-3	70%	4-2	7-1

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG –OOO–	5-3	63%	6-4
PSU OUOOU	5-4	56%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 36–44 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	6-4 60%	6-1-2 86%	5-3 63%
PSU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+1.6 →+2.4▲ 0.8#52

PSU+6.6 →+18.8▲ 12.2#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

RUTG

Longer bar = better

PSU

#93

Offense

PSU better ▶

#47

#34

Defense

PSU better ▶

+0.5 #30

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+1.5 #2

61 plays #122

Pace

PSU faster ▶

74 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	RUTG off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #90	13.1 #4	PSU
Yards / play	5.06 #113	4.13 #3	PSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #79	−0.07 #7	PSU
Success rate	40% #90	33% #3	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #15	18.3 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #105	4.59 #11	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.19 #43	0.00 #18	RUTG
Success rate	47% #26	43% #88	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	4.8 #86	6.6 #92	11.4 #98	3.4 #119	9.3 #17	12.7 #75
PSU allowed	2.0 #5	5.6 #29	7.6 #7	0.3 #2	5.2 #38	5.5 #4

PSU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.7 #51	9.9 #36	16.6 #38	9.7 #8	11.4 #1	21.1 #2
RUTG allowed	3.1 #19	4.7 #17	7.8 #9	4.1 #32	6.4 #66	10.5 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.