Akron @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Tue, Nov 14, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F5 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Akron

2-8 · Power #130

final

Final

Eastern Michigan

4-6 · Power #126

▲ winner

Closing spread

EMU -3

Push

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 19–22 EMU

✓ EMU (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseEMU -3

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseEMU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (83 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseEMU -3

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 3-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 30–27; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 3.7; 47.7 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SHSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-4	34–37	L	O38
Very close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Very close	FIU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	14–27	L	U43
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	AKR vs KENT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	31–27	W	O39.75
Very close	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5
Close	NMSU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–13	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LWLWL	4-6	40%	3-3	3-4
EMU WWWLL	5-5	50%	2-3	2-2

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; EMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR –UOOU	3-5	38%	2-8
EMU –OUOO	5-4	56%	4-6

Went over in OT. Of 38 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	3-5 38%
EMU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−1.0 →−16.3▼ 15.3#131

EMU−3.1 →−15.4▼ 12.3#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

AKR

Longer bar = better

EMU

#132

Offense

Even

#126

#48

Defense

◀ AKR better

#66

−0.9 #130

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

+0.1 #58

65 plays #91

Pace

◀ AKR faster

59 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	AKR off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	15.4 #135	25.0 #61	EMU
Yards / play	4.38 #133	5.65 #74	EMU
PPA / play	−0.09 #135	+0.09 #58	EMU
Success rate	37% #125	42% #71	EMU

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	EMU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #122	28.1 #87	AKR
Yards / play	4.44 #132	5.24 #44	AKR
PPA / play	−0.02 #122	+0.03 #31	AKR
Success rate	36% #129	38% #30	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	4.1 #105	3.7 #130	7.8 #128	1.7 #132	4.9 #110	6.6 #130
EMU allowed	5.9 #81	6.7 #52	12.6 #62	6.1 #73	6.3 #62	12.4 #72

EMU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.3 #100	6.4 #98	10.7 #106	4.2 #109	4.1 #127	8.3 #124
AKR allowed	3.0 #17	9.6 #104	12.6 #62	10.5 #133	3.5 #7	14.0 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.