Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Tue, Nov 21, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F17 mphgusts 29Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

5-6 · Power #126

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

3-8 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

BUFF -5.5

✓ EMU W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 17–23 BUFF

✗ BUFF (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUFF -5.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUFF -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 54% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUFF -5.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 5.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 24–11 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 37.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 5.6; 45.2 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs CLT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	7–10	L	U39.5
Very close	BGSU vs AKR 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	41–14	W	O37
Very close	SHSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	34–37	L	O38
Very close	EMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–27	L	O39.5
Very close	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.25	17–0	W	U36
Very close	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5
Very close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	FAU vs WKU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	10–6	L	U38
Very close	WKU vs FIU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–21	W	O42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WWLLP	5-5-1	50%	3-2	3-3
BUFF LWLLL	5-6	45%	1-4	1-2

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUOOO	6-4	60%	5-6
BUFF UUUUU	4-6	40%	3-8

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 65% of games with totals 33.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%	5-4 56%
BUFF	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−3.1 →−15.5▼ 12.4#128

BUFF−8.2 →−10.3▼ 2.1#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

EMU

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#125

Offense

Even

#120

#67

Defense

Even

#67

+0.1 #55

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #48

59 plays #129

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	EMU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #117	27.7 #89	BUFF
Yards / play	4.47 #132	5.88 #93	BUFF
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.07 #48	BUFF
Success rate	36% #130	39% #36	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	BUFF off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #107	25.2 #64	EMU
Yards / play	4.53 #130	5.53 #67	EMU
PPA / play	−0.05 #132	+0.10 #65	EMU
Success rate	39% #109	42% #72	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	3.9 #107	7.1 #81	11.0 #101	3.8 #113	4.0 #129	7.8 #127
BUFF allowed	5.8 #80	7.7 #72	13.5 #77	7.1 #100	7.1 #83	14.2 #97

BUFF scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.7 #92	5.2 #121	9.9 #110	7.0 #50	4.6 #114	11.6 #83
EMU allowed	5.4 #73	7.4 #64	12.7 #65	5.5 #60	6.0 #55	11.5 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.