Ole Miss @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Thu, Nov 23, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

9-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

5-6 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

MISS -10

Push

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 32–21 MSST

✓ MISS (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -10

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMISS -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -10

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 10-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 17–7; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 9.4; 53.8 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75
Very close	ORE @ CAL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	17–21	L	U59.5
Very close	PSU @ MD 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	31–14	W	U56.5
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	23–0	W	U55
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	TEX @ KSU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7	69–31	W	O53.5
Very close	ORST @ COLO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-11.5	34–37	L	O55.5
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	45–7	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WWPLL	6-4-1	60%	2-2	5-2-1
MSST WLLLW	3-8	27%	2-5	1-6

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UUOOU	5-5	50%	9-2
MSST UPUOO	6-4-1	60%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	4-5 44%
MSST	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	6-3-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+4.5 →+12.9▲ 8.4#15

MSST+2.3 →−0.8▼ 3.1#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MISS

Longer bar = better

MSST

#20

Offense

◀ MISS better

#108

#63

Defense

Even

#70

+0.8 #12

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

−0.2 #91

70 plays #37

Pace

◀ MISS faster

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #17	27.5 #87	MISS
Yards / play	6.74 #13	5.46 #63	MISS
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	+0.09 #57	MISS
Success rate	45% #35	42% #74	MISS

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	MSST off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #95	23.7 #53	MISS
Yards / play	5.34 #91	5.37 #57	MISS
PPA / play	+0.02 #117	+0.09 #61	MISS
Success rate	36% #129	43% #82	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	11.9 #4	5.7 #112	17.6 #28	8.5 #18	10.3 #7	18.8 #6
MSST allowed	7.2 #102	9.6 #109	16.8 #111	5.5 #60	5.1 #40	10.6 #42

MSST scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	3.6 #115	7.6 #72	11.3 #97	5.0 #92	6.3 #84	11.3 #95
MISS allowed	4.7 #47	6.8 #54	11.5 #46	5.6 #65	6.5 #71	12.2 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.