Vanderbilt @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

2-9 · Power #111

final

Final

Tennessee

7-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -28

✓ VAN W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 14–42 TENN

✓ TENN (98%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -28

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -28

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -28

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 28-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 48–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 61%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.9 against an average line of 27.1; 52.7 points a game (usually 58.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75
Close	OKST vs KU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-29	55–3	W	O54.5
Close	WASH vs COLO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-30.5	54–7	W	O60.5
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	PSU vs MD 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-27.5	19–35	L	U63
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	LSU vs ULM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-29	27–14	L	U57.5
Close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-24	27–31	L	P58
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-24.5	27–3	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN LWLLL	1-10	9%	0-5	1-7
TENN LWWLL	6-5	55%	4-2	6-3

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN –OUUU	7-3	70%	2-9
TENN OOOUU	5-5-1	50%	7-4

Went over in Q4. Of 133 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	6-3 67%
TENN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+2.1 →−9.9▼ 12.0#110

TENN+9.7 →+11.9▲ 2.2#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

VAN

Longer bar = better

TENN

#116

Offense

TENN better ▶

#37

#120

Defense

TENN better ▶

#38

−0.5 #108

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.4 #35

62 plays #121

Pace

TENN faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	VAN off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #99	21.8 #41	TENN
Yards / play	5.20 #98	5.14 #32	TENN
PPA / play	−0.07 #136	+0.07 #47	TENN
Success rate	36% #131	39% #31	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #49	35.1 #127	TENN
Yards / play	6.47 #28	6.41 #124	TENN
PPA / play	+0.19 #42	+0.25 #127	TENN
Success rate	46% #28	44% #103	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	4.5 #96	4.7 #130	9.3 #117	4.2 #107	9.3 #16	13.5 #59
TENN allowed	3.5 #23	7.3 #62	10.8 #36	7.1 #101	3.9 #11	11.0 #45

TENN scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	8.7 #18	9.3 #44	18.0 #24	5.9 #73	6.1 #85	12.0 #80
VAN allowed	7.6 #112	10.8 #123	18.5 #121	6.5 #92	10.1 #128	16.6 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.