Missouri @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

9-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

4-7 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

MIZ -10

✓ MIZ W

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 30–21 ARK

✓ MIZ (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -10

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIZ -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -10

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 10-point road favorite at ARK, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIZ won 48–14; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 54, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22 against an average line of 8.8; 49.4 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75
Very close	PSU @ MD 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	31–14	W	U56.5
Very close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	23–0	W	U55
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	30–16	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WWWWL	7-4	64%	3-0	3-3
ARK WLWLL	5-6	45%	1-5	4-1

Venue/role: MIZ away, as favorite; ARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OUUUO	6-4	60%	9-2
ARK OUOOO	8-2	80%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 141 earlier overs in games with totals 50–58, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%
ARK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+0.4 →+12.1▲ 11.7#17

ARK+3.7 →+2.4▼ 1.3#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MIZ

Longer bar = better

ARK

#21

Offense

◀ MIZ better

#85

#55

Defense

Even

#57

+0.4 #33

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #36

66 plays #74

Pace

Even

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #33	26.1 #69	MIZ
Yards / play	6.78 #12	5.67 #77	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.27 #15	+0.05 #39	MIZ
Success rate	47% #24	40% #41	Even

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	ARK off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #68	23.1 #48	Even
Yards / play	5.05 #112	5.57 #70	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.14 #64	+0.11 #71	Even
Success rate	40% #97	38% #29	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	6.9 #47	10.5 #27	17.4 #29	4.7 #96	10.7 #4	15.5 #32
ARK allowed	8.4 #122	6.1 #35	14.5 #90	7.1 #102	4.3 #16	11.4 #55

ARK scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.0 #28	6.5 #92	14.5 #70	5.2 #89	7.5 #48	12.7 #70
MIZ allowed	5.0 #58	4.0 #10	9.0 #23	6.5 #86	7.6 #96	14.1 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.