Florida International @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arkansas

Weather at kickoff52°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida International

4-6 · Power #131

final

Final

Arkansas

3-7 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARK -26.5

✓ FIU W

Total

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 11–37 ARK

✓ ARK (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARK -26.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARK -26.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARK -26.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 26.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARK won 44–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 50, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.6 against an average line of 25.8; 52.2 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Very close	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-25	44–6	W	O47.5
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Very close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-24	34–7	W	U51
Very close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Very close	SJSU vs NMSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-25.5	37–31	L	O51.5
Very close	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Close	ND vs UNLV 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-26	44–21	L	O46.5
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	27–3	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU LLWLL	4-6	40%	3-2	4-4
ARK WWLWL	5-5	50%	1-4	1-4

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU –UOOU	3-5	38%	4-6
ARK –OUOO	7-2	78%	3-7

Went over in Q3. Of 154 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-5 38%
ARK	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−5.6 →−16.4▼ 10.8#132

ARK+3.7 →+2.4▼ 1.3#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

FIU

Longer bar = better

ARK

#119

Offense

ARK better ▶

#95

#83

Defense

ARK better ▶

#60

−0.5 #116

Turnovers

ARK better ▶

+0.2 #47

63 plays #107

Pace

ARK faster ▶

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: ARK defense

	FIU off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #120	26.7 #73	ARK
Yards / play	5.05 #113	5.66 #77	ARK
PPA / play	−0.02 #123	+0.05 #40	ARK
Success rate	38% #118	40% #51	ARK

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #75	29.7 #104	ARK
Yards / play	4.90 #120	6.00 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #78	+0.12 #82	Even
Success rate	39% #108	40% #42	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.1 #86	6.7 #92	11.8 #91	5.1 #88	1.1 #133	6.2 #131
ARK allowed	7.9 #116	6.7 #48	14.6 #93	7.1 #103	4.7 #25	11.8 #61

ARK scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.1 #26	4.7 #129	12.8 #87	5.0 #91	7.7 #46	12.7 #72
FIU allowed	9.6 #129	7.3 #62	16.9 #113	4.0 #31	8.1 #101	12.1 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.