Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

2-8 · Power #114

final

Final

Western Kentucky

5-5 · Power #83

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -10

✓ SHSU W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 21–31 WKU

✓ WKU (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -10

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWKU -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 84%, covered 45% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -10

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 10-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WKU won 28–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 53, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 9.4; 49 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs NAVY 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-11	35–17	W	U55.5
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Very close	ECU vs USF 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	29–14	W	U55.5
Very close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	58–21	W	O52
Very close	MTSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	40–6	W	U51
Very close	BUFF vs OHIO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–26	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU LLLLW	4-5-1	44%	3-2	4-2-1
WKU LLLLL	3-7	30%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU UOOOO	6-2	75%	2-8
WKU –UOUO	4-4	50%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 49–57 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-2 75%
WKU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−3.3 →−11.7▼ 8.4#119

WKU+3.1 →−4.2▼ 7.3#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SHSU

Longer bar = better

WKU

#119

Offense

WKU better ▶

#65

#74

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#107

0.0 #77

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

+0.7 #18

66 plays #72

Pace

Even

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #121	28.7 #96	WKU
Yards / play	4.67 #126	6.05 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #110	+0.16 #101	Even
Success rate	38% #118	46% #121	Even

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #60	26.6 #72	Even
Yards / play	5.88 #58	5.89 #96	WKU
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	+0.11 #70	Even
Success rate	40% #93	41% #58	SHSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.5 #98	4.5 #131	9.0 #120	4.2 #107	5.5 #103	9.7 #115
WKU allowed	3.8 #29	9.9 #111	13.7 #82	5.9 #75	9.1 #112	15.0 #106

WKU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	10.3 #9	6.8 #90	17.1 #34	4.2 #107	7.6 #49	11.8 #83
SHSU allowed	6.5 #95	7.4 #70	13.9 #84	4.2 #36	6.5 #69	10.7 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.