New Mexico State @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Auburn

Weather at kickoff70°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

8-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

6-4 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

AUB -25

✓ NMSU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 11–35 AUB

✗ AUB (95%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAUB -25

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAUB -25

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 23–27 since 2023: won 93%, covered 44% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAUB -25

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 25-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 31–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 28 against an average line of 23.8; 56.2 points a game (usually 56). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND vs UNLV 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-26	44–21	L	O46.5
Close	APP vs USA 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	31–7	W	U51.75
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	TCU vs LT 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	52–10	W	O50
Close	FSU vs GT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-23.5	41–16	W	O48
Close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Close	ND vs USF 2020 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-23	52–0	W	O49
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Close	IOWA vs CSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	24–14	L	U43.75
Close	CLEM vs FAU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-25	48–14	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WWWWW	9-2	82%	5-1	4-1
AUB LLWWW	5-5	50%	3-2	3-2

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UUUUO	3-7	30%	8-3
AUB OUPUO	4-5-1	44%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	2-7 22%
AUB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−6.9 →−4.9▲ 2.0#87

AUB+11.4 →+8.0▼ 3.4#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NMSU

Longer bar = better

AUB

#25

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#65

#69

Defense

AUB better ▶

#42

0.0 #67

Turnovers

AUB better ▶

+0.4 #35

59 plays #130

Pace

AUB faster ▶

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #62	20.5 #31	AUB
Yards / play	7.14 #7	5.50 #64	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #15	+0.04 #37	NMSU
Success rate	48% #16	38% #36	Even

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #54	20.8 #38	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #69	5.71 #80	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #71	+0.12 #74	Even
Success rate	43% #64	43% #84	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.6 #92	10.5 #31	15.1 #58	5.5 #82	8.1 #34	13.6 #53
AUB allowed	5.3 #72	2.7 #2	8.0 #10	6.6 #92	5.9 #51	12.5 #74

AUB scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	7.6 #38	8.1 #67	15.7 #48	8.3 #27	5.3 #105	13.6 #54
NMSU allowed	3.7 #27	7.6 #71	11.4 #42	4.0 #29	5.5 #45	9.5 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.