Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F19 mphgusts 37DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville State

8-3 · Power #69

final

Final

New Mexico State

9-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -2.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 23–22 NMSU

✗ JXST (53%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -2.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJXST -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 43% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -2.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 2.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 2.4; 47.4 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Very close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Very close	UL @ UAB 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Very close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Very close	TROY @ GASO 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	13–20	L	U52
Close	BSU @ CSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-2	28–19	W	U51.5
Close	SDSU @ NEV 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Close	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	30–20	W	O44.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST LWWWW	8-2-1	80%	3-1-1	4-0-1
NMSU WWWWW	10-2	83%	4-1	5-1

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UUOOO	5-6	45%	8-3
NMSU UUUOU	3-8	27%	9-3

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 56% of games with totals 44–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	7-3 70%	7-2-1 78%	5-5 50%
NMSU	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	1-8 11%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−1.5▲ 3.6#70

NMSU−6.9 →−2.4▲ 4.5#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

JXST

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#73

Offense

NMSU better ▶

#24

#18

Defense

◀ JXST better

#65

+0.6 #23

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

0.0 #63

75 plays #5

Pace

◀ JXST faster

60 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #44	19.9 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.35 #89	5.65 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #96	+0.11 #73	NMSU
Success rate	43% #61	43% #83	JXST

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #58	20.4 #31	JXST
Yards / play	7.07 #8	4.81 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #13	−0.02 #13	Even
Success rate	48% #16	35% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	8.5 #22	6.8 #90	15.3 #55	8.5 #21	6.6 #74	15.1 #37
NMSU allowed	3.4 #20	7.6 #68	11.0 #37	3.7 #19	5.3 #37	8.9 #20

NMSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.8 #91	9.8 #39	14.7 #67	5.7 #79	8.6 #23	14.3 #46
JXST allowed	5.3 #65	6.1 #36	11.4 #42	4.3 #35	4.7 #25	9.0 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.