Iowa @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Nebraska · Conference game

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Iowa

9-2 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

5-6 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

IOWA 13–13 NEB

✗ NEB (50%) lost

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA WLL–L	4-5-1	44%	2-1	—
NEB LWLLP	4-6-1	40%	2-4	—

Venue/role: IOWA away; NEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UUU–U	2-7	22%	9-2
NEB UOOUO	5-4	56%	5-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	8-2 80%	4-4-1 50%	2-6 25%
NEB	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+3.8 →+2.3▼ 1.5#53

NEB+0.1 →−0.2▼ 0.3#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

IOWA

Longer bar = better

NEB

#133

Offense

NEB better ▶

#113

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#26

−0.3 #97

Turnovers

◀ IOWA better

−1.4 #135

59 plays #130

Pace

Even

62 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	IOWA off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #126	18.7 #19	NEB
Yards / play	4.18 #135	4.70 #12	NEB
PPA / play	−0.06 #135	+0.04 #35	NEB
Success rate	34% #135	39% #36	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	NEB off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #123	12.4 #3	IOWA
Yards / play	5.12 #107	4.00 #2	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.02 #118	−0.10 #2	IOWA
Success rate	39% #102	35% #9	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	2.9 #123	5.9 #106	8.8 #124	3.3 #120	6.4 #78	9.6 #112
NEB allowed	2.1 #6	6.5 #43	8.5 #16	2.5 #6	7.1 #84	9.5 #26

NEB scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	2.5 #130	5.4 #118	7.8 #129	4.4 #107	6.5 #73	10.9 #102
IOWA allowed	1.7 #2	3.3 #5	5.0 #2	3.3 #13	4.1 #14	7.4 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.