Ohio State @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff35°F5 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio State

11-0 · Power #4

final

Final

Michigan

11-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -3

✓ MICH W

Total

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 23–27 MICH

✓ MICH (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -3

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 58%, covered 47% (96 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -3

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 3-point home favorite against OSU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 46, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 3.5; 52.1 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU vs PSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	20–12	W	U46.5
Very close	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Close	ORST vs UTAH 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	21–7	W	U44.5
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Close	OKST vs OU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	37–33	P	O49.75
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Close	IOWA vs PSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	23–20	W	O41
Loose	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-1.5	33–14	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WLPWW	6-3-2	67%	1-2-2	—
MICH WWLWL	5-5-1	50%	1-4-1	5-5-1

Venue/role: OSU away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UUOUU	2-8	20%	11-0
MICH OOOUO	5-5	50%	11-0

Went over in Q4. Of 130 earlier overs in games with totals 42–50, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	10-0 100%	6-2-2 75%	2-7 22%
MICH	10-0 100%	5-4-1 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+8.6 →+21.2▲ 12.6#4

MICH+8.4 →+22.6▲ 14.2#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

OSU

Longer bar = better

MICH

#17

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

Even

+0.1 #56

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

+1.1 #5

65 plays #88

Pace

◀ OSU faster

62 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #26	9.0 #1	MICH
Yards / play	6.59 #18	4.21 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #8	−0.15 #1	Even
Success rate	48% #14	31% #1	Even

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #11	9.3 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #31	4.00 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.35 #4	−0.08 #4	Even
Success rate	52% #5	35% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.8 #49	10.3 #29	17.1 #34	8.7 #16	7.8 #39	16.5 #21
MICH allowed	2.1 #8	2.9 #4	5.0 #2	1.3 #2	2.7 #1	4.0 #1

MICH scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	9.0 #14	11.9 #14	20.9 #11	11.2 #2	6.2 #83	17.4 #13
OSU allowed	1.8 #3	2.8 #3	4.6 #1	1.9 #4	2.7 #1	4.6 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.