Texas A&M @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

5-3 · Power #17

final

Final

Ole Miss

7-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -3

Push

Total

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 26–30 MISS

✓ MISS (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -3

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMISS -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -3

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 3-point home favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 38–35; the favorite pushed, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 52, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.7 against an average line of 3.2; 50.9 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	OKST vs OU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	37–33	P	O49.75
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Very close	UCLA vs ASU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–42	L	O56
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-4	31–28	L	O53.5
Very close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	20–13	W	U54.5
Very close	OKST vs ISU 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.75	24–21	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M WWLLL	4-4	50%	0-2	0-2
MISS LWLWW	6-2	75%	4-1	5-1

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M UO–UU	3-4	43%	5-3
MISS UO–UU	3-4	43%	7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 132 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&Mlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	3-4 43%
MISSlast 8	7-1 88%	6-2 75%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+10.3 →+13.0▲ 2.7#16

MISS+4.5 →+14.7▲ 10.2#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TA&M

Longer bar = better

MISS

#55

Offense

MISS better ▶

#19

#17

Defense

◀ TA&M better

#42

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+0.9 #14

67 plays #72

Pace

MISS faster ▶

70 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #42	21.4 #41	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #57	4.99 #27	MISS
PPA / play	+0.15 #59	+0.05 #45	Even
Success rate	42% #63	41% #54	Even

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	38.9 #10	19.5 #27	Even
Yards / play	6.80 #14	4.55 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #11	−0.01 #24	Even
Success rate	45% #39	33% #5	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	6.3 #64	12.5 #11	18.8 #19	7.0 #48	6.3 #78	13.3 #61
MISS allowed	4.8 #55	5.5 #24	10.3 #39	5.6 #69	5.5 #48	11.1 #53

MISS scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	13.8 #1	5.4 #117	19.1 #18	7.8 #34	12.0 #3	19.8 #6
TA&M allowed	3.4 #28	4.6 #18	8.0 #10	5.9 #72	5.6 #52	11.5 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.