LSU @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

LSU

6-2 · Power #10

final

Final

Alabama

7-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -3

✓ ALA W

Total

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 30–32 ALA

✓ ALA (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -3

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseALA -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 54%, covered 44% (72 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -3

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 3-point home favorite against LSU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 42–28; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 61, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.7 against an average line of 3; 60.5 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs TEX 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.25	31–24	W	U61.5
Close	ND vs USC 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3	48–20	W	O61
Close	OKST vs TEX 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Close	AUB vs MISS 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	31–20	W	U67.5
Close	UTAH vs USC 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	43–42	L	O65
Close	BAY vs OKST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	25–36	L	O56
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Close	KSU vs OKST 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	48–0	W	U57.5
Close	CLEM vs WAKE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	48–27	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LLWWW	5-3	63%	2-1	—
ALA WWWLW	5-3	63%	3-2	5-3

Venue/role: LSU away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU OO–OO	6-0	100%	6-2
ALA UO–OO	4-2	67%	7-1

Went over in Q3. Of 59 earlier overs in games with totals 57–65, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSUlast 8	6-2 75%	5-3 63%	6-0 100%
ALAlast 8	7-1 88%	5-3 63%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU−6.4 →+18.4▲ 24.8#5

ALA+13.1 →+16.3▲ 3.2#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

LSU

Longer bar = better

ALA

Offense

◀ LSU better

#59

#103

Defense

ALA better ▶

#15

+0.8 #23

Turnovers

◀ LSU better

+0.3 #49

68 plays #56

Pace

◀ LSU faster

62 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	47.4 #1	16.5 #17	Even
Yards / play	8.09 #1	4.57 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.48 #1	−0.02 #23	LSU
Success rate	56% #3	33% #4	Even

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #51	26.5 #79	ALA
Yards / play	5.89 #58	6.09 #110	ALA
PPA / play	+0.18 #48	+0.23 #123	ALA
Success rate	41% #78	44% #101	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	9.5 #11	15.0 #2	24.5 #3	10.8 #6	12.1 #1	22.9 #1
ALA allowed	4.4 #47	5.1 #22	9.5 #28	3.0 #12	4.0 #14	7.0 #11

ALA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	5.1 #85	8.9 #55	14.0 #68	9.9 #10	6.8 #69	16.6 #25
LSU allowed	7.0 #104	6.4 #48	13.4 #76	3.3 #18	9.9 #123	13.1 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.