Army @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at LSU

Weather at kickoff75°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Army

2-4 · Power #104

final

Final

LSU

5-2 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -33

✓ LSU W

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 13–45 LSU

✓ LSU (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -33

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -33

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -33

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 33-point home favorite against ARMY, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 62–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 60, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 38.4 against an average line of 32.3; 60.6 points a game (usually 56). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75
Close	TENN vs USA 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-28.25	60–14	W	O61.5
Close	TENN vs VAN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-32	45–21	L	O64.5
Loose	ALA vs UK 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-31.5	63–3	W	O57.5
Loose	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Loose	TA&M vs ULM 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-36.5	47–3	W	U53.5
Loose	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-31	45–14	P	O53
Loose	BYU vs TXST 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-30	52–14	W	O61.75
Loose	CCU vs ULM 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-33.5	59–6	W	O57.5
Loose	MISS vs VAN 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-35.75	31–17	L	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY WWPLL	2-3-1	40%	1-1-1	1-1-1
LSU WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	4-3

Venue/role: ARMY away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY OOU–U	2-2	50%	2-4
LSU OOO–O	5-0	100%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 53 earlier overs in games with totals 56–64, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMYlast 6	2-4 33%	2-3-1 40%	2-2 50%
LSUlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	5-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−0.7 →−6.1▼ 5.4#96

LSU−6.4 →+15.7▲ 22.1#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ARMY

Longer bar = better

LSU

#101

Offense

LSU better ▶

#71

Defense

◀ ARMY better

#117

−0.8 #124

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

+0.3 #51

64 plays #92

Pace

LSU faster ▶

70 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Even matchup

	ARMY off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #93	30.3 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #99	6.44 #125	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.30 #130	ARMY
Success rate	38% #112	45% #109	Even

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	45.3 #3	20.2 #36	LSU
Yards / play	7.91 #2	5.63 #74	LSU
PPA / play	+0.45 #2	+0.12 #81	LSU
Success rate	55% #5	43% #91	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	6.0 #70	7.2 #90	13.2 #83	5.2 #89	6.2 #81	11.3 #94
LSU allowed	8.0 #120	7.3 #76	15.3 #100	3.7 #27	11.3 #129	15.0 #102

LSU scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	8.9 #16	13.7 #6	22.6 #6	10.9 #6	11.9 #4	22.7 #1
ARMY allowed	1.5 #5	6.7 #53	8.2 #15	5.0 #54	7.0 #81	12.0 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.