Duke @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Duke

5-1 · Power #37

final

Final

Florida State

6-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -14

✓ FSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 19–32 FSU

✓ FSU (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -14

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFSU -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -14

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 14-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 38–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12 against an average line of 13.3; 49.4 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	27–21	L	U50
Very close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	WISC vs IU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	6–14	L	U44.5
Close	MIAMI vs PITT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-12	31–19	P	O47
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	27–24	L	O44.5
Close	UGA vs TENN 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	44–21	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE LWWLW	4-2	67%	1-0	1-1
FSU WLWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE POOUU	2-2-1	50%	5-1
FSU OOU–U	2-2	50%	6-0

Went over in Q4. Of 92 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKElast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-2-1 50%
FSUlast 6	6-0 100%	4-2 67%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.1 →+11.0▲ 6.9#20

FSU+6.4 →+17.2▲ 10.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

DUKE

Longer bar = better

FSU

#38

Offense

Even

#26

#16

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#41

+0.5 #33

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #21

60 plays #126

Pace

FSU faster ▶

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #51	18.3 #22	FSU
Yards / play	6.47 #33	5.32 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #35	+0.06 #57	DUKE
Success rate	47% #32	38% #30	Even

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #7	9.8 #4	Even
Yards / play	7.02 #11	4.44 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #19	−0.08 #10	Even
Success rate	42% #65	38% #38	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.2 #89	9.5 #46	14.7 #68	10.5 #8	6.0 #83	16.5 #28
FSU allowed	2.8 #18	7.2 #72	10.0 #38	4.5 #43	3.8 #17	8.3 #20

FSU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	8.8 #19	10.3 #36	19.2 #17	12.0 #3	9.8 #20	21.8 #3
DUKE allowed	2.8 #18	2.8 #4	5.7 #6	0.5 #3	3.7 #11	4.2 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.