Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

2-4 · Power #77

final

Final

Wake Forest

3-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -3

✓ WAKE W

Total

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 23–21 WAKE

✗ PITT (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -3

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePITT -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 41% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -3

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 3-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 21–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 45, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 2.7; 50.2 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	33–23	W	O47.5
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	RUTG @ NU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	7–21	L	U45
Very close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	40–13	W	O45
Very close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.25	42–16	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT LLLLW	2-4	33%	0-2	1-2
WAKE WLLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: PITT away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OUOOO	5-1	83%	2-4
WAKE OUU–U	2-3	40%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 53% of games with totals 41–49 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITTlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
WAKElast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+3.7 →−1.0▼ 4.7#68

WAKE+1.2 →−2.2▼ 3.4#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

PITT

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#110

Offense

Even

#100

#39

Defense

Even

#51

−0.2 #82

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

−0.5 #105

60 plays #124

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

73 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	PITT off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #89	23.0 #51	WAKE
Yards / play	5.09 #108	5.59 #72	WAKE
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	+0.04 #40	WAKE
Success rate	38% #116	38% #39	WAKE

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	WAKE off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #99	25.2 #69	PITT
Yards / play	5.06 #110	4.86 #23	PITT
PPA / play	−0.02 #123	0.00 #27	PITT
Success rate	42% #68	38% #36	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	6.3 #57	6.8 #103	13.2 #82	8.0 #34	4.7 #111	12.7 #79
WAKE allowed	1.2 #3	11.3 #121	12.5 #67	4.5 #46	6.0 #63	10.5 #50

WAKE scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	3.2 #118	7.5 #82	10.7 #111	5.2 #88	7.7 #48	12.8 #77
PITT allowed	5.2 #71	11.0 #118	16.2 #104	7.3 #97	1.7 #3	9.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.