Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F11 mphgusts 25Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 275 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wake Forest

3-2 · Power #81

final

Final

Virginia Tech

2-4 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

VT -1.5

✓ VT W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 22–24 VT

✓ VT (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -1.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseVT -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 49% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -1.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 1.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 1.9; 48.3 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU vs CIN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	35–27	W	O48
Very close	UVA vs LOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–34	L	O47.5
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	34–31	W	O53
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	35–31	W	O51
Very close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5
Very close	GT vs MIA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	14–35	L	O43.5
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-0
VT LLLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OOUU–	2-2	50%	3-2
VT UOUO–	3-2	60%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 56% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKElast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	2-2 50%
VTlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+1.2 →+0.4▼ 0.8#62

VT+3.6 →−2.3▼ 5.9#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WAKE

Longer bar = better

#90

Offense

◀ WAKE better

#107

#41

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#69

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #84

74 plays #15

Pace

◀ WAKE faster

69 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	WAKE off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #91	26.7 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #100	5.66 #78	VT
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.12 #81	VT
Success rate	43% #57	38% #38	Even

When VT has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	VT off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #98	21.6 #44	WAKE
Yards / play	5.00 #119	5.29 #53	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.02 #114	0.00 #32	WAKE
Success rate	40% #96	38% #33	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	3.8 #109	7.0 #99	10.8 #113	6.2 #72	8.6 #34	14.8 #54
VT allowed	7.2 #108	8.5 #89	15.7 #99	6.3 #83	4.7 #36	11.0 #52

VT scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	2.7 #126	10.2 #40	12.8 #89	7.0 #56	3.7 #121	10.7 #101
WAKE allowed	1.4 #7	10.2 #110	11.6 #65	4.8 #53	5.2 #46	10.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.