Syracuse @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Thu, Oct 26, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

4-3 · Power #82

final

Final

Virginia Tech

3-4 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

VT -2.5

✓ VT W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 23–25 VT

✓ VT (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseVT -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 44% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 2.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 2.4; 50.1 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	BYU vs CIN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	35–27	W	O48
Very close	RUTG vs IU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	24–17	W	U48
Very close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	MSST vs UK 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	31–17	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WPLLL	3-3-1	50%	1-2	0-3
VT LLWWW	4-3	57%	3-1	2-0

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UUU–U	1-5	17%	4-3
VT OUO–U	3-3	50%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 94 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYRlast 7	4-3 57%	3-3-1 50%	1-5 17%
VTlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR+6.3 →+2.3▼ 4.0#50

VT+3.6 →−0.3▼ 3.9#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SYR

Longer bar = better

#67

Offense

◀ SYR better

#94

#43

Defense

Even

#53

0.0 #68

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #63

69 plays #53

Pace

Even

68 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #71	24.7 #66	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #67	5.36 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #64	+0.06 #55	Even
Success rate	42% #65	38% #35	VT

When VT has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	VT off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #90	22.1 #47	SYR
Yards / play	5.29 #94	5.14 #39	SYR
PPA / play	+0.04 #101	+0.03 #41	SYR
Success rate	40% #92	39% #46	SYR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	7.7 #36	8.9 #56	16.6 #50	7.3 #45	4.9 #108	12.1 #82
VT allowed	6.1 #92	8.7 #93	14.9 #96	5.4 #63	4.4 #27	9.9 #38

VT scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	2.3 #130	11.1 #24	13.4 #78	6.4 #63	4.6 #112	11.0 #97
SYR allowed	6.4 #99	6.3 #46	12.7 #72	3.9 #31	5.6 #51	9.4 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.