Clemson @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

4-3 · Power #19

final

Final

NC State

4-3 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -10

✓ NCSU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 28–19 NCSU

✗ CLEM (76%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -10

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLEM -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -10

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 10-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 9.2; 47.3 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Very close	CLEM @ SC 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	30–0	W	U42.5
Very close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Very close	APP @ GASO 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-9.5	34–26	L	O45
Very close	ND @ PITT 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	45–3	W	O43.5
Very close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Very close	WISC @ NEB 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10	15–14	L	U40.5
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM WLWLL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-4
NCSU LLWWL	2-5	29%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM OUU–O	3-2	60%	4-3
NCSU UUU–U	1-4	20%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEMlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	3-2 60%
NCSUlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLEM 60–30 NCSU (1 tied) CLEM leads · 91 games since 1902 · CLEM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM−4.1 →+11.0▲ 15.1#18

NCSU+5.0 →+0.8▼ 4.2#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CLEM

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#54

Offense

◀ CLEM better

#97

#19

Defense

◀ CLEM better

#47

−0.1 #86

Turnovers

NCSU better ▶

+0.1 #56

75 plays #9

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #49	23.6 #56	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #74	5.47 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #74	+0.02 #34	NCSU
Success rate	48% #20	38% #34	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: CLEM defense

	NCSU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #90	20.6 #41	CLEM
Yards / play	5.00 #113	4.31 #7	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	−0.05 #13	CLEM
Success rate	41% #73	35% #15	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	7.3 #41	9.4 #44	16.7 #49	8.3 #26	5.0 #105	13.3 #65
NCSU allowed	4.4 #52	5.9 #32	10.3 #36	7.7 #110	5.6 #49	13.3 #83

NCSU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.4 #78	8.3 #66	13.7 #77	7.4 #43	4.3 #118	11.7 #88
CLEM allowed	4.9 #63	2.9 #5	7.7 #12	2.9 #12	7.4 #91	10.3 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.