Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

2-6 · Power #120

▲ winner

Final

Eastern Michigan

4-4 · Power #126

final

Closing spread

WMU -3

✓ WMU W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 26–24 EMU

✓ WMU (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWMU -3

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWMU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 44% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWMU -3

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 3-point road favorite at EMU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 50, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 2.7; 51.9 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	LT @ UTSA 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	26–27	L	U53.5
Very close	CMU @ BUFF 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–37	L	U52
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Very close	LT @ ODU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	20–23	L	U52.25
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	29–0	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WWWLW	5-3	63%	3-2	2-0
EMU LWWWW	5-3	63%	2-2	3-1

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; EMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOOOU	5-3	63%	2-6
EMU UO–OU	3-4	43%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 107 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMUlast 8	2-6 25%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%
EMUlast 8	4-4 50%	5-3 63%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−3.0 →−11.1▼ 8.1#117

EMU−3.1 →−13.7▼ 10.6#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WMU

Longer bar = better

EMU

#100

Offense

◀ WMU better

#124

#108

Defense

EMU better ▶

#51

+0.1 #66

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

+0.4 #41

74 plays #15

Pace

◀ WMU faster

58 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	WMU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #94	19.5 #32	EMU
Yards / play	5.11 #106	5.45 #61	EMU
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.06 #56	EMU
Success rate	39% #104	41% #56	EMU

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #125	34.3 #123	Even
Yards / play	4.34 #131	6.15 #115	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #116	+0.18 #104	Even
Success rate	37% #124	43% #91	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	4.8 #93	8.6 #60	13.4 #79	5.1 #96	5.4 #100	10.5 #105
EMU allowed	3.0 #23	5.8 #32	8.8 #19	6.3 #82	4.5 #29	10.8 #53

EMU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	5.4 #80	6.8 #99	12.1 #95	3.8 #113	2.4 #131	6.1 #130
WMU allowed	7.6 #116	9.5 #105	17.1 #113	8.6 #119	8.5 #106	17.1 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.