Western Michigan @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F11 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Western Michigan

2-5 · Power #120

final

Final

Ohio

5-2 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -16.5

✓ WMU W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 17–33 OHIO

✓ OHIO (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -16.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOHIO -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 59% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -16.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 16.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 52, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 15.7; 54.1 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-17	34–7	W	U52
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Very close	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-17	41–34	L	O51
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	41–35	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU LWWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	2-3
OHIO WWWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOOOO	5-2	71%	2-5
OHIO UUU–U	0-5	0%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 59% of games with totals 48–56 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMUlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	5-2 71%
OHIOlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	0-5 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−3.0 →−12.1▼ 9.1#121

OHIO+0.9 →−0.1▼ 1.0#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WMU

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#100

Offense

Even

#88

#108

Defense

OHIO better ▶

+0.3 #46

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

0.0 #63

75 plays #11

Pace

◀ WMU faster

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	WMU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #91	13.4 #6	OHIO
Yards / play	5.03 #111	4.47 #14	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	−0.14 #3	OHIO
Success rate	39% #108	33% #9	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #104	36.3 #128	OHIO
Yards / play	4.98 #115	6.19 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #90	+0.18 #108	Even
Success rate	45% #43	42% #79	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.4 #78	9.9 #42	15.3 #64	4.4 #107	5.1 #100	9.6 #114
OHIO allowed	1.4 #4	3.9 #11	5.3 #5	1.9 #7	6.3 #68	8.1 #20

OHIO scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.3 #102	9.3 #51	13.6 #81	6.4 #66	2.9 #129	9.3 #118
WMU allowed	8.3 #119	10.4 #113	18.7 #123	8.9 #119	8.7 #107	17.6 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.