Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F11 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

5-1 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Western Michigan

2-4 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

M-OH -7.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 29–22 WMU

✓ M-OH (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -7.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseM-OH -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -7.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 7.5-point road favorite at WMU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: M-OH won 34–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 8; 42.4 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	17–10	P	U45.25
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	ARMY @ UTSA 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	28–16	W	U47
Very close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Very close	FAU @ USM 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	31–45	L	O43.5
Very close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	3–10	L	U47
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	UL @ ULM 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	17–21	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WWWWW	5-1	83%	3-1	4-0
WMU LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; WMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OOOU–	3-1	75%	5-1
WMU UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 64 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OHlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	3-1 75%
WMUlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

M-OH 24–21 WMU (1 tied) M-OH leads · 46 games since 1962 · WMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−11.1 →−1.8▲ 9.3#73

WMU−3.0 →−12.4▼ 9.4#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

M-OH

Longer bar = better

WMU

#41

Offense

◀ M-OH better

#94

#51

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#117

0.0 #66

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #64

57 plays #132

Pace

WMU faster ▶

76 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: M-OH offense

	M-OH off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #55	36.7 #131	M-OH
Yards / play	6.78 #23	6.44 #123	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.26 #26	+0.21 #117	M-OH
Success rate	43% #59	44% #96	M-OH

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	WMU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #92	18.8 #29	M-OH
Yards / play	5.16 #105	5.27 #50	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.11 #77	+0.08 #57	Even
Success rate	39% #100	41% #68	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	10.3 #16	7.3 #86	17.7 #37	8.5 #32	3.8 #120	12.3 #88
WMU allowed	7.3 #110	11.0 #117	18.3 #119	10.3 #131	8.0 #98	18.3 #127

WMU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.8 #72	10.3 #33	16.2 #56	4.7 #100	4.7 #108	9.3 #114
M-OH allowed	5.0 #69	3.7 #12	8.7 #29	5.3 #64	4.8 #40	10.2 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.