Western Michigan @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Mississippi State

Weather at kickoff62°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

2-3 · Power #120

final

Final

Mississippi State

2-3 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSST -21.5

✓ WMU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 16–37 MSST

✓ MSST (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMSST -21.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMSST -21.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMSST -21.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSST as a 21.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 41–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 21.3; 58.9 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21	45–0	W	U58
Very close	UAB vs UTSA 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-21.5	21–13	L	U55.5
Very close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Very close	TULN vs UAB 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-22	35–23	L	U58.5
Very close	USC vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-21.5	41–34	L	O55.5
Very close	HOU vs TEM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-20	43–36	L	O56
Close	TCU vs LT 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	52–10	W	O50
Close	M-OH vs AKR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-20	34–21	L	O51
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-22	44–10	W	O50.5
Close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-2	1-2
MSST WLLLL	1-4	20%	1-3	1-1

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UUOOO	3-2	60%	2-3
MSST UUOOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 71 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
MSSTlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−3.0 →−12.4▼ 9.4#124

MSST+2.3 →−0.4▼ 2.7#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WMU

Longer bar = better

MSST

#93

Offense

Even

#84

#112

Defense

Even

#106

0.0 #68

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #60

75 plays #11

Pace

◀ WMU faster

61 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #94	29.8 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #109	6.02 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #70	+0.15 #95	WMU
Success rate	39% #100	47% #119	Even

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MSST offense

	MSST off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #76	35.8 #126	MSST
Yards / play	5.91 #62	6.37 #120	MSST
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	+0.18 #110	MSST
Success rate	38% #112	43% #91	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	7.0 #50	11.0 #30	18.0 #43	2.8 #123	4.2 #111	7.0 #127
MSST allowed	6.2 #90	11.6 #119	17.8 #113	5.4 #68	6.6 #72	12.0 #68

MSST scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	3.4 #110	10.2 #45	13.6 #79	6.2 #73	6.8 #68	13.0 #74
WMU allowed	6.8 #106	11.8 #122	18.6 #117	9.6 #120	7.6 #93	17.2 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.