Rutgers @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F13 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Rutgers

4-1 · Power #51

final

Final

Wisconsin

3-1 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -13

✓ RUTG W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

RUTG 15–28 WIS

✓ WIS (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -13

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -13

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 13-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 24–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 12.8; 55 points a game (usually 55.8).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14	27–21	L	U50
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	MIAMI vs PITT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-12	31–19	P	O47
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Close	ISU vs KSU 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread	-13.5	45–0	W	U48
Close	USC vs ORST 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-11	27–45	L	O62.75
Close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5
Close	VT vs BC 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	40–14	W	U61.75
Close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG WWWPW	4-0-1	100%	0-0-1	0-0-1
WIS LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG UUOUO	2-3	40%	4-1
WIS OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTGlast 5	4-1 80%	4-0-1 100%	2-3 40%
WISlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+1.6 →+2.6▲ 1.0#49

WIS+6.6 →+10.9▲ 4.3#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

RUTG

Longer bar = better

WIS

#64

Offense

WIS better ▶

#49

#25

Defense

◀ RUTG better

#46

+0.6 #33

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #26

63 plays #110

Pace

WIS faster ▶

70 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #61	19.8 #36	WIS
Yards / play	5.53 #87	5.21 #47	WIS
PPA / play	+0.23 #37	−0.01 #36	Even
Success rate	42% #69	40% #64	Even

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	WIS off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #43	12.8 #13	RUTG
Yards / play	6.11 #52	4.42 #14	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.15 #62	−0.04 #23	RUTG
Success rate	46% #37	39% #51	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.6 #41	8.8 #64	16.4 #56	4.2 #104	10.2 #15	14.4 #55
WIS allowed	4.3 #56	6.8 #58	11.0 #57	5.3 #65	3.5 #20	8.8 #32

WIS scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	6.0 #65	6.8 #103	12.8 #88	13.5 #2	7.0 #64	20.5 #8
RUTG allowed	1.4 #6	2.6 #5	4.0 #2	3.4 #33	5.4 #55	8.8 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.