Maryland @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F12 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Maryland

5-0 · Power #27

final

Final

Ohio State

4-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -17.5

✓ OSU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

MD 18–35 OSU

✓ OSU (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -17.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -17.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 17.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 37–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.6 against an average line of 17; 51 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	UGA vs ARK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Close	LSU vs ARK 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-17.5	34–31	L	O55
Close	OSU vs WISC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-19	52–21	W	O56.5
Close	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Close	FLA vs TENN 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-19	38–14	W	U64.75
Loose	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-14	27–21	L	U50
Loose	OSU vs PSU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & situation	-18.5	33–24	L	U60.5
Loose	CLEM vs MIAMI 2020 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-14.25	42–17	W	U60.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-0	—
OSU LLWP	1-2-1	33%	1-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD UOOUO	3-2	60%	5-0
OSU UUOU	1-3	25%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MDlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
OSUlast 4	4-0 100%	1-2-1 33%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+3.0 →+8.7▲ 5.7#24

OSU+8.6 →+19.4▲ 10.8#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

OSU

#22

Offense

Even

#25

#28

Defense

Even

#19

+1.8 #2

Turnovers

◀ MD better

+0.5 #36

67 plays #71

Pace

◀ MD faster

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #13	8.5 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.81 #27	4.12 #4	OSU
PPA / play	+0.35 #13	−0.02 #35	MD
Success rate	47% #33	37% #35	Even

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #38	13.2 #16	MD
Yards / play	7.10 #16	4.81 #29	Even
PPA / play	+0.39 #11	−0.10 #10	Even
Success rate	47% #34	39% #58	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MD scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	11.2 #14	8.6 #72	19.8 #24	6.4 #72	12.4 #4	18.8 #15
OSU allowed	2.5 #19	2.5 #4	5.0 #5	1.8 #10	1.8 #3	3.5 #4

OSU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.0 #50	13.8 #13	20.8 #16	7.8 #46	6.0 #79	13.8 #68
MD allowed	6.2 #90	1.2 #1	7.4 #22	1.8 #12	4.0 #26	5.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.