Arkansas @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff86°F2 mphgusts 11Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arkansas

2-1 · Power #59

final

Final

LSU

2-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -17.5

✓ ARK W

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 22–38 LSU

✓ LSU (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -17.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -17.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 17.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 55, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17 against an average line of 16.2; 59.6 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Loose	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	27–21	L	U50
Loose	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Loose	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Loose	OSU vs WISC 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19	52–21	W	O56.5
Loose	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Loose	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Loose	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Loose	LSU vs CMU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19.5	49–21	W	O60.5
Loose	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK WLL	1-2	33%	—	—
LSU LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
LSU –OO	2-0	100%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 51–59, 42% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARKlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
LSUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+3.7 →+8.0▲ 4.3#29

LSU−6.4 →+13.7▲ 20.1#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARK

Longer bar = better

LSU

#41

Offense

LSU better ▶

#11

#21

Defense

◀ ARK better

#88

+1.7 #8

Turnovers

◀ ARK better

+0.3 #56

66 plays #69

Pace

LSU faster ▶

74 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #24	23.0 #74	ARK
Yards / play	5.58 #80	5.77 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #17	+0.28 #126	ARK
Success rate	47% #41	39% #60	Even

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	45.7 #7	19.0 #49	LSU
Yards / play	7.26 #15	4.29 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #10	−0.20 #3	Even
Success rate	54% #13	33% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	14.0 #5	10.3 #45	24.3 #12	7.0 #47	7.0 #60	14.0 #58
LSU allowed	5.7 #92	4.7 #38	10.3 #61	3.3 #35	9.3 #111	12.7 #86

LSU scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	10.3 #17	17.3 #6	27.7 #6	8.0 #40	10.0 #24	18.0 #26
ARK allowed	6.7 #100	3.3 #21	10.0 #57	5.7 #79	3.3 #21	9.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.