UAB @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Georgia

Weather at kickoff72°F8 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

UAB

1-2 · Power #102

final

Final

Georgia

3-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -40

✓ UAB W

Total

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 9–47 UGA

✓ UGA (100%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -40

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -40

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -40

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like UGA as a 40-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 49–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 7 similar games. 70 points went over 56, as in 2 of 7.

Favorite won

7 of 7100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

2 of 729%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 42 against an average line of 39.2; 54 points a game (usually 56.6). When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-40.75	31–6	L	U53.5
Loose	UGA vs MIZ 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest	-40	43–6	L	U59
Loose	OSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-39	49–10	P	O58
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Loose	ALA vs VAN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-40.5	55–3	W	U60.75
Loose	OSU vs IU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & rest	-40	56–14	W	O62
Loose	TA&M vs ULM 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-36.5	47–3	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
UGA LPL	0-2-1	0%	0-2-1	0-2-1

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
UGA UUU	0-3	0%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 49 earlier overs in games with totals 52–60, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UABlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
UGAlast 3	3-0 100%	0-2-1 0%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB+0.5 →−4.8▼ 5.3#88

UGA+6.4 →+16.4▲ 10.0#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UAB

Longer bar = better

UGA

#42

Offense

UGA better ▶

#27

#117

Defense

UGA better ▶

−0.3 #82

Turnovers

UGA better ▶

+1.7 #12

72 plays #27

Pace

◀ UAB faster

70 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	UAB off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #65	8.0 #3	UGA
Yards / play	6.16 #47	4.26 #18	UGA
PPA / play	+0.26 #37	−0.16 #6	UGA
Success rate	53% #20	30% #4	Even

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #30	32.0 #116	UGA
Yards / play	6.69 #29	6.12 #115	UGA
PPA / play	+0.31 #28	+0.19 #111	UGA
Success rate	52% #22	48% #125	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	2.3 #116	12.0 #31	14.3 #73	5.7 #77	10.3 #16	16.0 #44
UGA allowed	2.3 #19	2.3 #9	4.7 #5	0.0 #1	3.3 #22	3.3 #4

UGA scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	3.3 #109	13.7 #18	17.0 #50	14.0 #1	8.0 #49	22.0 #4
UAB allowed	5.7 #93	12.7 #123	18.3 #116	5.7 #83	8.0 #101	13.7 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.