South Carolina @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F3 mphgusts 10Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

South Carolina

1-1 · Power #47

final

Final

Georgia

2-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -26

✓ SC W

Total

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 15–40 UGA

✓ UGA (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -26

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -26

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -26

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like UGA as a 26-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 4, covered 0, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 24–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 5 similar games. 38 points stayed under 54, as in 0 of 5.

Favorite won

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

0 of 40%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 57%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 26.3; 66.2 points a game (usually 57). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM vs UVA 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-28	41–23	L	O55.5
Close	MD vs CLT 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	38–20	L	O50
Loose	CCU vs KU 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-27	49–22	P	O52
Loose	MIA vs MTSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-25.5	31–45	L	O53.5
Loose	CLEM vs BC 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-26.5	34–28	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC LW	1-1	50%	—	0-1
UGA LP	0-1-1	0%	0-1-1	0-1-1

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UO	1-1	50%	1-1
UGA UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 50–58 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SClast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
UGAlast 2	2-0 100%	0-1-1 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC−1.6 →−1.3▲ 0.3#75

UGA+6.4 →+14.9▲ 8.5#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

UGA

#38

Offense

UGA better ▶

#23

#61

Defense

UGA better ▶

+1.0 #34

Turnovers

UGA better ▶

+1.5 #17

74 plays #26

Pace

◀ SC faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	SC off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #59	5.0 #5	UGA
Yards / play	6.27 #50	3.78 #8	UGA
PPA / play	+0.43 #13	−0.36 #1	Even
Success rate	51% #30	22% #2	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #16	26.0 #90	UGA
Yards / play	7.21 #19	5.59 #89	UGA
PPA / play	+0.38 #19	−0.04 #36	Even
Success rate	48% #39	34% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

SC scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.0	13.5	20.5	6.5	5.0	11.5
UGA allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.0	5.0

UGA scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	3.5	20.5	24.0	14.0	8.5	22.5
SC allowed	7.0	8.5	15.5	7.0	3.5	10.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.