Georgia Tech @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Ole Miss

Weather at kickoff76°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

1-1 · Power #53

final

Final

Ole Miss

2-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -17

✓ MISS W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 24–39 MISS

✓ MISS (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -17

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMISS -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -17

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 17-point home favorite against GT, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MISS won 48–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 16.9; 59.9 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WAKE vs LIB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	37–36	L	O64
Close	WASH vs STAN 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-14	40–22	W	P62
Close	OSU vs PSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	33–24	L	U60.5
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Close	MISS vs TLSA 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-21	35–27	L	U66.5
Loose	ND vs LOU 2020 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-16	12–7	L	U62
Loose	PUR vs FAU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-16.25	28–26	L	U57.25
Loose	CIN vs UCF 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-21.5	56–21	W	O56
Loose	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Loose	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-15.5	48–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT WL	1-1	50%	—	1-0
MISS WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: GT away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT –O	1-0	100%	1-1
MISS OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 26 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GTlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%
MISSlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT−2.1 →+3.3▲ 5.4#40

MISS+4.5 →+9.5▲ 5.0#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

MISS

#24

Offense

Even

#18

#107

Defense

MISS better ▶

#24

−0.5 #92

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+1.5 #16

69 plays #56

Pace

Even

69 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Even matchup

	GT off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #24	13.5 #25	Even
Yards / play	7.78 #9	3.85 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #31	−0.15 #13	Even
Success rate	50% #32	37% #46	Even

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	55.0 #5	26.0 #88	MISS
Yards / play	7.52 #13	6.07 #108	MISS
PPA / play	+0.38 #17	+0.24 #114	MISS
Success rate	49% #38	48% #117	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 102 FBS teams

GT scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	7.0	21.0	28.0	8.5	4.5	13.0
MISS allowed	7.0	5.0	12.0	0.0	1.5	1.5

MISS scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	17.5	6.5	24.0	17.5	13.5	31.0
GT allowed	3.0	6.5	9.5	8.5	8.0	16.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.