Florida State @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F17 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida State

2-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Boston College

1-1 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

FSU -25.5

✓ BC W

Total

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 38–13 BC

✓ FSU (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -25.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFSU -25.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -25.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like FSU as a 25.5-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 31–29; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 8 similar games. 60 points went over 48, as in 3 of 8.

Favorite won

8 of 8100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.6 against an average line of 24.4; 48.4 points a game (usually 57). When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Loose	SYR @ CONN 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-23.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Loose	HOU @ TEM 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & rest	-25.5	37–8	W	U52.5
Loose	CIN @ NAVY 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & rest	-28.5	27–20	L	U49.25
Loose	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Loose	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Loose	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Loose	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & rest	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0
BC LL	0-2	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU –O	1-0	100%	2-0
BC OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 31 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSUlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-0 100%
BClast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+6.4 →+12.9▲ 6.5#9

BC−0.4 →−8.4▼ 8.0#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

FSU

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

◀ FSU better

#74

#58

Defense

◀ FSU better

#92

+1.0 #38

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #47

68 plays #66

Pace

Even

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	55.5 #4	27.5 #94	FSU
Yards / play	7.76 #10	5.59 #88	FSU
PPA / play	+0.36 #24	+0.11 #88	FSU
Success rate	43% #76	44% #99	FSU

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #78	18.5 #54	FSU
Yards / play	5.35 #93	5.69 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #62	−0.01 #50	Even
Success rate	44% #64	35% #35	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	10.5	12.0	22.5	15.5	17.5	33.0
BC allowed	0.0	10.5	10.5	7.0	7.0	14.0

BC scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	3.5	10.5	14.0
FSU allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	3.5	5.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.