Minnesota @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at North Carolina

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

2-0 · Power #79

final

Final

North Carolina

2-0 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -7

✓ UNC W

Total

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 23–29 UNC

✓ UNC (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -7

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNC -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -7

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 7-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 52, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 6.1; 51.7 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Close	UVA vs BC 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	43–32	W	O54
Close	OKST vs KSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	31–20	W	O47.5
Close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Close	UNC vs NCST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–30	L	O56
Close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-5.75	17–44	L	O52
Close	FSU vs SYR 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	33–30	L	O50.25
Close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	17–14	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LL	0-2	0%	—	—
UNC WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN –U	0-1	0%	2-0
UNC UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 63% of games with totals 48–56 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINNlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%
UNClast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.8#48

UNC+0.1 →+1.8▲ 1.7#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MINN

Longer bar = better

UNC

#113

Offense

UNC better ▶

#50

#66

Defense

◀ MINN better

#81

+0.7 #33

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

−0.3 #97

67 plays #68

Pace

UNC faster ▶

74 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	MINN off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #122	21.3 #59	UNC
Yards / play	4.81 #120	5.27 #65	UNC
PPA / play	−0.02 #120	+0.17 #104	Even
Success rate	41% #89	43% #97	Even

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #50	15.7 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.65 #31	5.52 #81	UNC
PPA / play	+0.17 #61	+0.01 #57	Even
Success rate	44% #58	42% #91	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	0.0	6.5	6.5	5.0	7.5	12.5
UNC allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	3.5	6.5	10.0

UNC scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	3.5	10.0	13.5	12.0	3.5	15.5
MINN allowed	0.0	3.0	3.0	3.5	1.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.